The Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction презентация

Today’s overview
History of WMD - Chemical, Bio, Nuke
International Treaties
Nuclear Weapons Today
North Korea, Iraq, Pakistan
Iran?

World War I

Chemical
Non-living
First use in Western World - Peloponnesian War
Rediscovered in Renaissance

Chemical - Modern uses
Iraq-Iran War
“Is military research hazardous to veteran’s health?” (1994) US Senate
Japan - Aum Shinrikyo
Russian forces - Moscow theater hostages

The Chemical Threat

Chemical Stockpiles
Units in Metric Tons
Source: Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons December 2006 implementation report, Report of the OCPW on the Implementation of the Convention of the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction in 2005.

Biological
Living organisms
Anthrax
Cold War focused on retaliation
A Poor Nation’s WMD
Iraq
Nearly impossible to detect
Dual-use technologies

The Biological Threat
H5N1/Bird Flu
1918 “Spanish Lady”

International Treaties
1899 Hague Conference
Navy Captain Alfred Thayer Mahan - "the inventiveness of Americans should not be restricted in the development of new weapons."
1925 Geneva Protocol
Bans chemical & biological weapons
Nothing on production, storage, or transfer
1993 Chemical Weapons Convention

Chemical Weapons Convention
Bans:
* Developing, producing, acquiring, stockpiling, or retaining chemical weapons.
* The direct or indirect transfer of chemical weapons.
* Chemical weapons use or military preparation for use.
* Assisting, encouraging, or inducing other states to engage in CWC-prohibited activity.
* The use of riot control agents “as a method of warfare.”
Didn’t ratify/sign: Bahamas, Congo, Dominican Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Israel, Myanmar, Angola, North Korea, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia, Syria

Biological Weapons Treaties
1972 Biological Weapons Convention
158 states
Bans creation & storage, but not usage
Also applies to private parties
Reviews in early 1990s, US says “not in national interest” before 9/11.
2003: National mechanisms for security
2004: Enhancing international response to disease/outbreaks
2004: strengthens detection & capabilities
2005: codes of conduct for scientists

Parties to Bio Weapons Treaty (2007)

The Manhattan Project
University of Chicago
Oakridge TN (K-25, Y-12, S-50) for U-235
Hanford WA for Plutonium
Los Alamos NM for Bomb Assembly & Test

The Manhattan Project
Separating U235 & U238
Gaseous Diffusion
Electromagnetic Separation
Thermal Diffusion
Centrifuge Separation
YF12 Calutron Operation - Oakridge

Nuclear Weapons
First known nuclear test was done in New Mexico on July 16th 1945
How many tests to date?
US bombs Hiroshima & Nagasaki
USSR tests weapon in 1949
Hydrogen bomb
Only countries to test weapons: US, Russia, UK, France, India, China, Pakistan, and North Korea (possibly South Africa/Israel).

How to Build “the Bomb”

“Little Boy” Hiroshima

Fat Man - Nagasaki

NPT
1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty
Prohibits all above ground testing
1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty
Except: India, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea
Non-proflieration, Disarmament, Peaceful Use
IAEA

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 1968
Ratified by 188 states
Atoms for Peace
IAEA – dual mission of prevention & promotion
The Fissile Bank - Failure
Goal of disarmament - Failure
The “Big Five” (haves) v. “have-nots”

Giving up nukes
South America - Treaty of Tlatelolco (‘67)
Weapons-Free Zone
Gave up programs: Argentina & Brazil
Nobel Prizes to creators of treaty
South Africa
Relinquishes weapons after apartheid

Nuclear Stockpiles

Loose Nukes
Cold War “Near Misses”
Deterrence and Balance of Power
The Former Soviet Union: Nunn/Luger
A “Dirty Bomb”
Military Utility of Nuclear Weapons
Regime Security
AQ Khan and the Black Market

Chemical & Biological Weapons
Easier to make
Easier to deploy
Harder to detect
Harder to fix blame
Can be used in an asymmetrical context
Therefore, harder to deter

WMD - Case Studies
North Korea, Iraq, Pakistan & Iran

Nuclear State of the World: N. Korea
KFR
Withdrew from NNPT in 1985
Clinton Agreement
The North Korean “Detonation” on Oct. 9th 2006
Bush Agreement

New Regime 2011 Kim Jong Un

North Korea (Yong Ban)

N. Korea - Potential Disaster
-Formidable Threat: 1.2 million soldiers, 100,000 elite forces, one of the world’s largest chemical and biological weapons arsenals. One million South Koreans live within Artillery range.
-Deployment of weapons of mass destruction: Believed to have 30-60 nuclear warheads, the likelihood of their use increases with greater regime instability. Hwasong-14 can hit the US with potentially a Hydrogen warhead

Potential Disaster (con’t)
-Regime Collapse: “collapse of the chain of command of the KFR could be more dangerous than the preservation of it, particularly when one considers control over WMD.” -Colonel Maxwell,
-Refugee Crisis: South Koreans and Chinese fear an influx of refugees more than NK missiles. “Mother of all relief operations”: The US could be presented with the greatest stabilization effort since WWII, and have to coordinate operations with the Chinese PLA.

Kim Jong Un’s Objectives
1: Preserve the Regime
Maintain US enemy to justify hardships of the people
2: Gain acceptance to the international community and get sanctions lifted
3: Split the alliance between South Korea and the U.S. Support in SK for US intervention has dwindled, & many may rally to nationalist calls for the US not to interfere.

Kim Jong Un’s Objectives
4: Manipulate the South Korean left (by Force or by guile)
Olympic diplomacy
by inflicting sufficient damage to press them to seek a negotiated settlement.
provoke American attacks to cause them to place blame on the US for the violence.
5: Nuclear Blackmail or Deterrence?
-(Everyone thought Kim Il Sung was too weak to invade in 1950)
-Force US withdrawal from the Peninsula (or at least stop exercises.

Cyber War – “The Interview”
Took out 70% of Sony Pictures computer system
Ransomware attacks on UK hospitals
Bangladesh Central Bank
US Attacks on North Korea (Missile Sabotage)

What Can the US/Global Community Do?
China’s role
Increase/Decrease Sanctions
1990 Famine Killed 1/10 of population
Freeze Exercises
Accept North Korea as a nuclear power
Like Pakistan or India
Attack North Korea
10K US dependents near Seoul
Trump rhetoric – “Little rocket Man”
Containment

Regional BOP
Centers on China
Threat to Japan?
Cost to South Korea
Kim Jong Un?
Reunification

Iraq

Iraq
Uses poison gas in Iran-Iraq War, also against Kurds
Iraq in the 90’s.
1991: Gulf War ends, UN weapons inspectors begin work in the Iraq.
1992-94: Iraq largely disarmed of WMD’s, while retaining some research and development capabilities
1995-96: Saddam’s remaining WMD programs wind down. Period of weakened internal security and political turmoil. High-level officials defect.
1998: Saddam kicks out weapons inspectors, arousing international suspicion.

What we thought (Pollock
Iraq continues WMD programs in defiance of sanctions.
Iraq will have a nuke w/i a decade or 1 year if it can acquire fissile materiel from abroad.
Iraq has invested heavily in missile tech
Iraq has renewed production of chemical agents and it researching weaponization of bio agents

What we now know to be true!
Iraq had preserved some nuclear technology, but had not restarted its nuclear program.
No chemical weapons or bio weapons were produced, but some research was carried out and 1 bio lab was maintained clandestinely.
Saddam was most aggressive in pursuit of ballistic missile technology.

Overselling the case
Correcting intelligence problems

Pakistan

AQ Khan “provided the country—single handedly, it was widely believed—with an arsenal of nuclear weapons (Langewiesche, 2005).”

AQ Khan
Background
Spread technology to:
Iran, Libya, and North Korea
Transfer to non-state actors?
Pakistani & US Reaction

IRAN

Iranian Nuclear Sites

What will US/Israel do?

Obama’s Nuclear Policy
World w/o Nukes, but role remains deterrence
Renounce 1st Use
Will not use nuclear weapons to retaliate against a non-nuclear state (including Chem/Bio)
Remove all weapons from alert status
Control all fissile materiel