Government and politics of china pols 442/sisea 449 презентация

Studying the Chinese case
How can comparative theory help us understand China better?
What does China tell us about important comparative theoretical questions?

The Chinese case in comparative context
Theoretical puzzles
Authoritarian resilience
Political institutions and economic growth

Theoretical puzzle 1
How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?
Challenge to modernization theory
Economic development, education, urbanization, emergence of middle class
? associated with democratization

Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?
Political institutions matter:
Regime type Percent surviving as of 1998*
Military 11
Personalistic 16
Single party 50
*regimes existing or formed since 1946
Source: Barbara Geddes, “What Do We Know About Democratization?”

Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?
Political institutions
In single-party regimes
Allow participation and popular influence without giving up party’s dominant role in the political system
This course? part 2

Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?
How big a threat is factionalism to the CCP regime?
China perspective:
Ousted Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai

Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?
How big a threat is factionalism to the CCP regime?
Comparative theory:
In single-party regimes,
factions
strong incentives to cooperate in order to maintain power
less threatening to regime stability than in other types of authoritarian regimes
This course? part 1

Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?
How big a threat is factionalism to the CCP regime?
China perspective:
Ousted Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai
Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to investigate and warned that if political reforms were not implemented, China risked a new Cultural Revolution.

Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?
How big a threat is factionalism to the CCP regime?
Political history matters:
How did factional politics play out during the Cultural Revolution, 1966-1976?
This course? part 1

Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?
Political beliefs matter: Survey of 3,183 PRC residents
What is democratic Percent
Legitimacy? Responding
Procedural 25
Substantive* 14
Mixed 5
Incoherent 15
Don’t know 42
*Substantive: refers to the Confucian notion of “minben” (民本)
Source: Shijian Tian & Jie Lu, “The Shadow of Confucianism”

Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?
Political beliefs matter: Survey of 3,183 PRC residents
What is democratic Percent
Legitimacy? Responding
Procedural 25 ? potential challenge to regime
Substantive* 14
Mixed 5
Incoherent 15
Don’t know 42
*Substantive: refers to the Confucian notion of “minben” (民本)
Source: Shijian Tian & Jie Lu, “The Shadow of Confucianism”

Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?
Political beliefs and political history matter
Confucian notion of minben
“Rulership should be entrusted to those with superior knowledge and virtue”
Legitimacy is defined by substance: how well the regime performs and cares for its people
“Ordinary citizens have the right to participate only under extreme conditions—if a rule loses the “Mandate of Heaven”
This course ? Part 1

Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?
Political beliefs matter: Survey of 3,183 PRC residents
What is democratic Percent
Legitimacy? Responding
Procedural 25
Substantive* 14 ? potential support for regime
Mixed 5
Incoherent 15
Don’t know 42
*Substantive: refers to the Confucian notion of “minben” (民本)
Source: Shijian Tian & Jie Lu, “The Shadow of Confucianism”

Theoretical puzzle: How do authoritarian regimes stay in power?
Political beliefs matter: Survey of 3,183 PRC residents
What is democratic Percent
Legitimacy? Responding
Procedural 25
Substantive* 14
Mixed 5
Incoherent 15
Don’t know 42 ? not threatening for regime
*Substantive: refers to the Confucian notion of “minben” (民本)
Source: Shijian Tian & Jie Lu, “The Shadow of Confucianism”