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Over the past three years, Ukraine’s dependence on the Russian market has decreased
dramatically. The structure of domestic commodity exports has diversified, while sales in emerging markets in Asia and Africa have expanded and exports to the European market increased after the introduction of EU unilateral preferences for Ukrainian suppliers.
The loss of export capacity in the Donbas and Russia’s constraints on Ukrainian goods have created the conditions for a relatively painless departure from the Russian market. In August-September 2014, the percentage of Ukraine’s total exported goods sold to Russia dropped to 16.9%. If we include satellite economies that became members of the Eurasian Economic Union on 1 January 2015 (Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia), that number becomes 23%. This trend continued: in October, exports to Russia fell to 15.7% (21.7% including Eurasian Union countries) and 14.7% (19.8%) in November.
Today, completely different markets have become priorities for Ukraine. For the first 11 months of 2014, the largest share of exports was sold on the markets of the Mediterranean (24.3%, increased to 26.5% in November), including several EU member states (Italy, Spain, Greece, etc.). Another 23.2% (22% in November) of exports were sold in other EU countries. We now can see that Russia and its partners in the Eurasian Economic Union are only in third place.
Moreover, in November, Ukraine’s exports to China and other countries in the Far East (Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) were only five percent less of its total exports than those to Russia (9.4% vs. 14.7%). With deliveries to these markets growing rapidly in recent years while exports to Russia decrease, they may soon be more important for Ukraine. Other important consumers of Ukrainian products include South Asian countries (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh), which in the first 11 months of 2014 amounted to 4.4% of exports (up to 6.4% in November), and countries of the Persian Gulf (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman), with 5.3% of exports (4% in November).