Содержание
- 2. Main Messages Robust growth supported by high energy prices, large capital inflows, rising domestic demand and
- 3. I. Recent Economic Developments
- 4. Rapid Output Growth Driven by Booming Domestic Demand Economic growth remains robust. Having grown by 7.9
- 5. Non-Tradable Sectors Continued to Boom Sectors servicing domestic demand continued to boom in 9M-2007: construction (23.5
- 6. Manufacturing Growth: Strong But Tapering Off While still strong, manufacturing growth is decelerating. The impressive growth
- 7. The downward trend in manufacturing might be associated with the erosion in competitiveness in non-fuel, non-metal
- 8. Russia continues to experience an investment boom Capital investment growth, % to previous year The aggregate
- 9. Despite Investment Boom, Domestic and Foreign Investments Went to A Few Sectors Total Fixed Capital Investment
- 10. Inflation is Rising, Driven by Food Prices and Monetary Factors *Data for 9 months. Source: CBR
- 11. Food prices increased, but prices of non-tradable goods and services also increased… Changes in prices of
- 12. Keeping inflation in check is becoming increasingly difficult with large capital inflows Accumulation of Foreign Reserves
- 13. BoP continued recording surpluses: weaker C/A was more than offset by stronger Capital Account Balance of
- 14. Fiscal surpluses continue, but recently fiscal policy has become more accommodative The approved 3-year budget entails
- 15. Prospects Growth is likely to remain robust. With energy prices set to remain high, booming domestic
- 16. II. Productivity Growth in Russia
- 17. Russia has experienced a productivity surge, propelling economic growth Total factor productivity growth (5.8 percent) drove
- 18. What are the drivers of the productivity surge? Capacity utilization Sectoral shifts Firm dynamics
- 19. Higher capacity utilization explains part of the productivity surge Utilization of excess capacity yields ‘easy’ productivity
- 20. The productivity surge is also explained by major sectoral shifts in the economy A substantial reallocation
- 21. Firm dynamics Decomposing total productivity growth into three components: ‘within’: accounts for productivity growth within existing
- 22. Productivity growth came mostly from efficiency gains within firms -but reallocation & net entry also mattered
- 23. Firm turnover plays a smaller role than in other advanced economies Private entrants are less productive
- 24. Challenges Ahead In spite of the productivity surge, Russia’s income per capita remains low (at 28
- 25. Sustaining Productivity Growth Calls For Policy Reforms that Accelerate Reallocation of Resources towards More Efficient Uses
- 26. III. From Red to Gray: The Third Transition of Aging Population in Russia
- 27. Shrinking and Rapid Aging Population % Population Decrease, 2000-2025 17 million % of over-65 population, 2000-2025
- 28. Aging is not a stop sign for growth: Message 1) Address labor shortage through reforms to
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